每周新闻分析 | 土耳其对叙利亚边境发动军事打击-IOTA

您的位置：网站首页 行业动态 每周新闻分析 | 土耳其对叙利亚边境发动军事打击

每周新闻分析 | 土耳其对叙利亚边境发动军事打击

阅读量：3670216 2019-10-22

本文字数：1450字
阅读时间：5分钟
土耳其对叙利亚边境发动军事打击
中文分析
10月9日下午，土耳其国防部宣布对叙利亚东北部地区发起地面进攻。土耳其总统埃尔多安称，此次军事行动由土耳其军队和叙利亚国民军联合发起，对库尔德工人党、库尔德武装和ISIS恐怖组织进行清除。行动代号为“和平之泉”，旨在建立“安全区”，为叙利亚难民创造返回叙利亚的机会，同时彻底消灭土耳其面对的恐怖威胁。土耳其此次军事行动同时在美国国内掀起轩然大波。美国总统特朗普对叙利亚库尔德武装力量的态度并不明确，此前特朗普曾警告土耳其，如果土耳其军队对库尔德人发起进攻，美国将“摧毁”土耳其经济。
然而美国国防部于10月13日宣布美国军队将从叙利亚彻底撤军，此举被视为彻底放弃库尔德武装力量。此前，库尔德武装力量是美国对抗ISIS恐怖组织的盟友，美国曾多次向其出售军火。叙利亚政府方面对土耳其的军事行动进行了谴责，但是并没有组织军队进行反击。分析指出叙利亚之所以不担心土耳其军队留在其领土上是因为有俄罗斯做担保。然而叙利亚民主力量于10月13日宣布已与叙利亚政府达成协议，叙利亚政府军将在其边境部署与土耳其军队对峙。大马士革方面随后承认了此协议，同时开始部署其军队。
10月15日，美国总统特朗普在国际负面舆论和国内国会的压力下批准对土耳其实施制裁，将钢铁关税提高到50%，并暂停1000亿美元的贸易谈判。此外欧盟28国和阿拉伯联盟集体声明，强烈反对土耳其在叙的行动。
为避免局势进一步升级，10月17日，土耳其总统埃尔多安在安卡拉会见了美国副总统彭斯。经过长时间的会谈后，土耳其与美国达成了停火协议，为期五天，条件是库尔德武装必须撤出土耳其想在土叙边境建立的安全区。这份协议对土耳其和库尔德武装都有一定缓冲作用，不仅为库尔德武装撤离提供时间，同时为美国、库尔德和土耳其三方提供了长期谈判的机会。分析指出，土耳其此次军事行动的目的在于削弱库尔德人的政治力量，以防止对土政府产生威胁；其最终目标是将叙库尔德人与土库尔德人隔离，把叙政府的反对派以及叙难民安置在缓冲区内。许多分析同时认为土耳其方面想建立约20英里宽的安全区，但此举将会对叙利亚领土的完整造成问题。土耳其对此次停火协议的执行方面同样有待观察。
俄罗斯的态度对叙利亚的局势也至关重要，作为叙利亚阿萨德政府长期的军事和政治支持，俄罗斯总统普京已经邀请土耳其总统埃尔多安会晤商谈叙利亚局势。叙利亚局势的走向会在俄土峰会后继续变化。

Picture Source: /news.sina.com.cn/
英文分析
On Wednesday, October 9th, Turkey’s Defense Ministry announced to begin its military operation in northeastern Syria. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that the operation aims to remove the Kurdish-led forces from the border area with Turkey and create a “safe zone” for millions of Syrian refugees. The move came after the Trump administration announced the withdrawal of its troops from northern Syria, which is seen as a sign of abandoning the U.S. backed Kurdish forces in Syria.
Despite bipartisan critics and opposition on the decision, the administration announced on Sunday with a complete withdrawal of U.S. military forces in Syria. The Kurdish majority force “Syrian Democratic Force (SDF)” and the Kurdistan Worker’s Party are the main objectives of Turkey’s military operations. These forces fought against the ISIS, the Islamic terrorist force, along with the U.S. before, but they are listed as terrorist groups by Turkey. When Turkish forces moved across the Syrian border, the Syrian Assad government denounced Turkey’s actions but had no further reactions such as confrontation with forces. As the United States withdrew its troops completely from Syria, the SDF on October 13th announced that they have reached a deal with the Syrian government. The deal included Syrian government force deployment on the Syria-Turkish border, adding fuels to the already chaotic regions.
On October 15th, President Trump approved sanctions on Turkey under pressure from Congress and international opinions. The United States Vice President Mike Pence traveled to Ankara on October 17th to meet with the Turkish President Erdogan. After a long negotiation, President Erdogan agreed to have a five-day ceasefire on the bases that all the Kurdish forces must withdraw from the “safe zone” area that Turkey wanted to establish. Pence also indicated that the US’s sanctions will stop after Turkey turned off its military operation. The Turkish government demands a 20 miles safe zone from its border into Syria’s territory, which many accused this illegal territorial claim from Turkey.
Russia has also responded by deploying its troops to Syria’s north as a buffer force in the face of Turkish force, but Russia’s foreign minister said Moscow will try to promote a deal that would help Turkey secure its border while ensuring Syria’s territorial integrity. Russian President Vladimir Putin has also invited Erdogan to Moscow to discuss the issue this week. Russia has backed the Syrian government in its multi-faceted war and its recent deal with the SDF. The analysis predicts that Russia will try its best to broker a deal that damages Syria the least, meaning a smaller “safe zone” for Turkey. However, Turkey’s attitude toward the “safe zone” has been tough, the issue could go to serious debate. Both Kurdish and Turkish officials have said that Kurdish forces are withdrawing the area, but Turkey’s actions after the five-day ceasefire remain in question. This is an ongoing scene.